By RANIA H.
Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are prompting mounting concern among analysts and regional diplomats, many of whom warn that Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and rhetoric are pushing the Horn of Africa toward another dangerous confrontation only a few years after a devastating war claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
The International Crisis Group has listed Ethiopia–Eritrea relations among Africa’s top conflicts to watch, citing unresolved grievances, deep mistrust, and persistent instability in northern Ethiopia.
Despite the 2018 peace agreement that earned Abiy a Nobel Peace Prize, critics argue the rapprochement has since hollowed out, replaced by ambiguity, strategic competition, and escalating suspicion.
From Peace Partner to Strategic Rival
Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara were once portrayed as a cornerstone of regional peace.
Yet analysts note that the alliance forged during the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was tactical rather than transformative. With the Tigray conflict formally ended but politically unresolved, long-standing disputes particularly over influence, borders, and access to the Red Sea have resurfaced with renewed intensity.
Abiy’s repeated characterization of Red Sea access as an “existential” issue for Ethiopia has alarmed both Eritrea and regional observers.
Critics say such framing shifts the issue from economic cooperation to national survival language historically associated with territorial claims and military escalation rather than diplomacy.
Rhetoric Versus Reassurance
While Abiy has publicly denied any intention to invade Eritrea and insists Ethiopia seeks dialogue and a “mutually beneficial solution,” critics argue his assurances are undermined by confrontational rhetoric and strategic signaling.
Eritrean officials have been unusually blunt in their response.
Eritrea’s ambassador to South Sudan has accused Abiy of damaging bilateral relations and pursuing what he described as “unrealistic dreams” over Red Sea access that threaten sovereignty and regional stability.
The unusually sharp tone reflects growing anxiety in Asmara that Addis Ababa’s ambitions may extend beyond diplomacy.
Leadership Style Under Scrutiny
Some regional analysts and political insiders describe Abiy’s leadership approach as increasingly centralized, assertive, and risk-prone.
They warn that strategic objectives—such as Red Sea access and regional influence—appear to be prioritized over diplomatic caution and confidence-building measures.
According to analysts cited by Ethiopia Insight and Eurasia Review, this approach risks miscalculation.
Ethiopia is still grappling with internal conflicts, economic strain, and humanitarian crises.
Eritrea, meanwhile, remains highly militarized and deeply suspicious of Ethiopia’s intentions.
Any escalation, observers warn, would likely spiral quickly, destabilizing not only the two countries but the wider Horn of Africa.
A Region Too Fragile for Brinkmanship
The stakes are high. The Horn of Africa is already strained by conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and internal Ethiopian regions.
Observers caution that inflammatory rhetoric, poor diplomatic management, and unresolved post-war grievances could reignite hostilities neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea can afford.
“The tragedy,” one regional diplomat noted, “is that both governments speak the language of peace while preparing for confrontation.”
As Ethiopia approaches a pivotal election year and Eritrea remains diplomatically isolated, critics argue that Abiy Ahmed faces a defining test: whether to pursue regional leadership through cooperation and restraint or risk dragging the Horn of Africa back into a cycle of conflict that history has already proven catastrophic
