By TESFA-ALEM TEKLE
A newly released analytical report by the Pan-African Agenda has concluded that the African Union failed to prevent or halt the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, describing the conflict as the deadliest armed confrontation in the world since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Issued ahead of the 39th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the report titled “Is Africa’s Premier Continental Organization, the African Union, Fit for Purpose?” offers a detailed review of the AU’s diplomatic posture and institutional response during the 2020–2022 conflict.
The study estimates that more than 600,000 people died as a result of the war, including from direct fighting, hunger, disease, and the collapse of essential health services.
It characterizes the conflict as the most lethal internationalized intrastate war of the 21st century.
According to the report’s findings, roughly 84 percent of all conflict-related deaths recorded in Africa between 2020 and 2022 occurred during the Ethiopia–Eritrea war against Tigray forces.
Researchers argue that this concentration of fatalities underscores both the scale of the crisis and the consequences of delayed or ineffective intervention.
The analysis also highlights what it describes as a stark imbalance in global attention.
Despite the high death toll, the Tigray war received less than one percent of global media coverage during the peak years of the conflict, compared with far higher levels of reporting on other contemporary wars.
The report says this disparity contributed to weaker international pressure and slower diplomatic mobilization.
The authors criticize the African Union’s response as limited and reactive, despite the conflict unfolding in Ethiopia, the AU’s host country and the seat of its core peace and security institutions.
The report argues that early warning signs, mass atrocity indicators, and humanitarian collapse were visible, yet did not translate into timely preventive diplomacy or robust intervention measures.
Fighting and large-scale fatalities declined significantly only after the signing of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November 2022.
The report credits sustained external pressure and mediation led by the United States, with support from AU-appointed facilitators, for helping secure the deal. It contends that earlier, more assertive diplomatic engagement could have reduced the human toll.
Beyond assessing the AU’s wartime performance, the study raises broader institutional questions about mandate, capacity, and political constraints.
It notes that the AU often faces structural limits, including dependence on member-state consent, financing gaps, and reluctance to confront sitting governments factors that can hinder rapid response in high-intensity conflicts.
The report calls for reforms aimed at strengthening early-warning mechanisms, enforcement tools, mediation authority, and humanitarian coordination within the AU’s peace and security architecture. Without such changes, it warns, similar failures could recur in future crises.
The study concludes that the AU’s handling of the Tigray conflict represents a serious test of its credibility as Africa’s primary multilateral body for conflict prevention and civilian protection and says restoring confidence will require demonstrable improvements in both readiness and resolve.
