By EFREM TESFAGABR
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has issued a stark but diplomatically worded warning to neighboring Eritrea, underscoring that while Ethiopia remains committed to regional peace and cooperation, it will not compromise on its sovereignty or economic imperatives.
The statement, delivered during a nationally broadcast address, comes at a time of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa over maritime access, regional influence, and post-conflict recalibrations.
Abiy’s speech marked a significant escalation in Ethiopia’s rhetoric on Red Sea access, a long-simmering issue that has gained urgency amid the country’s rapid population growth and economic ambitions.
While reaffirming a commitment to peaceful negotiations, the Prime Minister made it clear that Ethiopia views unhindered access to a port on the Red Sea as a strategic necessity.
“Our pursuit of port access is rooted in peaceful negotiation and respect for sovereignty, not force,” Abiy stated. “However, if our peace is threatened, Ethiopia has the strength to defend itself.”
Landlocked Aspirations, Maritime Realities
Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 120 million and one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, has long depended on the port of Djibouti for more than 95% of its trade.
But Addis Ababa increasingly regards this arrangement as inadequate—both strategically and economically.
In late 2023, Abiy renewed Ethiopia’s push for sovereign port access to the Red Sea, arguing that such access is a matter of national survival.
The campaign has met fierce resistance, particularly from Eritrea, whose ports—Assab and Massawa—are viewed by many Ethiopian officials as logical options.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has firmly rejected the idea of ceding any sovereign control over port facilities, interpreting Ethiopia’s proposals as a thinly veiled attempt to reassert dominance over its smaller neighbor.
Asmara’s response has been unyielding. Eritrean officials accuse Ethiopia of reviving old hegemonic ambitions under the guise of economic development.
Public statements from Eritrean state media have warned against “coercive diplomacy” and “imperial nostalgia,” suggesting that any pressure to share sovereign port access would be met with stiff resistance.
A Complicated History
The tension is rooted in more than just economics.
Ethiopia and Eritrea share a fraught history, including a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000 that left tens of thousands dead and relations severed for nearly two decades.
Though a landmark peace accord was signed in 2018, ushering in a brief period of optimism, the underlying mistrust has never fully dissipated.
During the Tigray War (2020–2022), Eritrean forces intervened on the side of Ethiopian federal troops, a move that temporarily aligned the two governments.
But since the war’s end, bilateral relations have cooled sharply, with both sides offering conflicting narratives about border demarcation, post-war cooperation, and military presence near disputed areas.
Eritrean troops have reportedly remained near key border regions, including areas near the town of Badme—the symbolic flashpoint of the original border war.
These lingering deployments have fueled suspicions in Addis Ababa, where officials see them as potential tripwires for future confrontations.
Domestic Pressures, Regional Stakes
Abiy’s recent remarks reflect not just international tensions but also domestic challenges.
Ethiopia faces internal ethnic fragmentation, economic stress, and growing pressure to fulfill its promise of regional leadership.
By projecting strength abroad—especially on the port issue—the government may also be seeking to rally national unity and assert strategic priorities.
“Ethiopia is positioning itself as a rising regional power, and maritime access is no longer a luxury—it’s a necessity,” said Dr. Hiwot Mekonnen, a Horn of Africa policy analyst based in Nairobi.
“But the idea of acquiring sovereign port access from Eritrea is politically explosive and could ignite new instability.”
There is also a broader geopolitical dimension. The Red Sea corridor has become a focal point of competition among global powers, including China, the United States, the Gulf States, and Turkey.
Any major shift in port access arrangements could have ripple effects beyond the Horn of Africa, affecting global trade, military positioning, and diplomatic alignments.
Paths Forward: Diplomacy or Deadlock?
While Abiy’s statement stressed Ethiopia’s commitment to peaceful negotiation, his words also carried a veiled threat that Ethiopia would not tolerate perceived obstruction indefinitely.
This dual message—cooperation if possible, confrontation if necessary—could harden positions in Asmara, where officials are deeply wary of Ethiopian intentions.
However, analysts say there may still be room for compromise. One possibility includes a port access arrangement under international guarantees that respects Eritrea’s sovereignty while addressing Ethiopia’s maritime needs.
Another could involve deepening economic integration, where Ethiopia gains preferential trade routes in exchange for infrastructure investment or political support.
But time is short. With regional instability worsening—from civil war in Sudan to instability in Somalia and Yemen—any escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could have cascading effects across an already fragile region.
“Our vision is one of shared progress and stability,” Abiy concluded, a sentiment echoed in rhetoric but yet to be realized in practice.
For now, the Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads—caught between the hope of integration and the shadow of old rivalries.
